At Just Horizons, our work is driven by the conviction that today’s most persistent social challenges require the most innovative tools, grounded in human values and centered on the people they are meant to serve. We are proud to announce the official launch of a groundbreaking new initiative that places this principle into direct action. Our consulting division, NexusSIM, has been selected to partner with leading public health scientist Dr. Brenda Heaton of the University of Utah on the UT Dental Caries Project, a pivotal effort to combat the silent epidemic of early childhood tooth decay in primary, or “baby,” teeth.
This is more than a health project; it is a matter of justice. Across the nation, dental decay disproportionately harms children in underserved communities. Data from the 2024 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey reveals a stark reality: children living below the poverty line are more than three times as likely to face barriers to dental care. This is not just about temporary cavities—it is a crisis that impairs nutrition, school performance, and long-term well-being, locking already vulnerable families into a cycle of poor health and financial strain.
The Challenge: Why Baby Teeth Matter for a Lifetime
Traditional public health responses have often fallen short because they underestimate the lifelong impact of early decay. Dr. Heaton’s research highlights a critical dynamic known as the “decay feedback loop.” Many are unaware that cavities in baby teeth are not a temporary problem. They create a bacterial environment that makes the incoming adult teeth far more susceptible to decay, establishing a pattern of dental issues that can last a lifetime. The health of a child’s first teeth truly sets the foundation for their future oral health.
To crack this code, we must understand the complex web of factors that shape behavior—from a parent’s feeding habits and brushing routines to the influence of their social network. This is where NexusSIM’s expertise becomes essential.
Our Role: Building a New Model for Prevention
NexusSIM has been tasked with developing the computational engine at the heart of this project. We are building and calibrating a sophisticated agent-based model that moves beyond one-size-fits-all assumptions. Our simulation will work on two interconnected levels:
- Individual Caregiver Behavior: Modeling the detailed decisions parents make about oral hygiene, based on rich data collected by Dr. Heaton’s team.
- Social Network Influence: Simulating how these behaviors spread and are reinforced through family, friends, and community networks—a powerful and often overlooked factor.
Using a custom Python module built on the NexusSIM framework, our model will allow us to test countless future scenarios. We can identify which specific behavioral changes, if adopted before and after the first baby tooth erupts, will have the most significant impact. More importantly, we can determine how to best support those changes through targeted community and network interventions.
Precision Public Health: A Glimpse of the Future
If this project succeeds, it has the potential to revolutionize public health strategy. Instead of funding generic awareness campaigns, policymakers could deploy precise, evidence-based interventions tailored to the behaviors and communities where they will do the most good. Our simulation provides a risk-free virtual laboratory to test these strategies in advance, ensuring that scarce public resources are invested for maximum impact.
The collaboration between Dr. Heaton’s profound public health expertise and NexusSIM’s cutting-edge computational modeling represents a new frontier in the fight for health equity. This is the beginning of a multi-year endeavor to create a future where a child’s zip code does not determine the lifelong trajectory of their dental health—a path set in their earliest years.
We are honored to have been chosen for this pivotal work and are eager to get underway. We invite you to follow our progress on this journey toward prevention, precision, and justice. Please check back for future updates as we share key milestones and insights from this vital research.